Cognitive Decision-Making and Crisis Management: The Iran Crisis
Brad Michael Meslin
A crisis in foreign relations invariably calls for an optimum of prescience and judgment in decision-makers. By its nature, a crisis involves some higher degree of risk; it imposes on crisis managers the necessity of defining goals and making rapid decisions in a short period of time, often based on incomplete information. In this article, Brad Michael Meslin bases his analysis of U.S. crisis management during the Iranian crisis on the cognitive/cybernetic model developed by John Steinbruner. Meslin concludes with the suggestion that U.S. crisis management in the future, because of the changes in the world environment and relative U.S. power and influence, will have to rely on a more intimate knowledge and understanding of other peoples if it is to be successful.
Parallels in Isolation: Managing Space Problems in Antarctica
Peter X. Harding
As more time is spent in the exploration and inhabitation of space, periods of isolation will grow longer, accompanied by unique forms of stress for individuals functioning in an artificial environment. In this article, Mr. Harding, once an expedition leader in Antarctica, discusses the similarities found in the stresses imposed on individuals working in Antarctica and space and the methods for managing problems encountered in isolation.
Saudia Arabia Faces the 1980s: Saudi Security Problems and American Interests
Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr.
The recent controversy over the sale of advanced weapons systems to Saudi Arabia and the decision of the Reagan Administration, albeit reservations, to support such a sale, has brought the desert kingdom back into sharp focus for American strategy and policy planners. While its medieval political and social structure grapples with modernization and the pressures of a vast accumulation of petrodollars, Saudi Arabia remains a critical element in American policy in the Middle East. In light of the ruthless invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union and the Muslim fratricide of the Iran-Iraq war, the stability and longevity of the Saud family and the kingdom they rule have become more important – and problematic. In the following essay, Lincoln Bloomfield, Jr., presents a penetrating analysis of some of the internal and external pressures on Saudi Arabia, its princes, and the Washington-Moscow-Riyadh axes of tension and influence.
Hegel, Freedom and the Ideological Roots of Soviet Foreign Policy
In the preface to the Science of Logic, Hegel wrote, “If it is remarkable when a nation loses its constitutional theory ... it is certainly no less remarkable when a nation loses its metaphysics.” In this article, Mr. Lukes examines the Hegelian notion of freedom and traces its development in the writings of Marx, Engels, Lenin and Lukzcs. He concludes that the Hegelian idea of freedom became adulterated as it passed from one thinker to another, and that it no longer provides the metaphysical foundation for present day Soviet politics. Because the Soviet ideology has lost this fundamental underpinning, it no longer designs its foreign policy with the idea of freedom in mind.
ISSUES AND POLICY
Reform, Repression and Revolution in El Salvador
Kevin Harris and Mario Espinosa
The Role of Migration in Development: Pakistan and the Gulf
Energy and Security in the Developing Countries
David A. Deese
Joint Ventures Abroad and United States Antitrust: A Reply
Patrick C. Reed
Triage of Triads
John M. Collins
FORUM SPECIAL FEATURE
France, Europe and the United States: New Realities of an Old Alliance
On February 26, 1981 His Excellency Jean Francois-Poncet delivered the annual William L. Clayton lecture at the Fletcher School. In his address, the former French Minister of Foreign Affairs discusses the current status of the United States’ oldest ally and its foreign relations today. He contends that if the Western alliance is to sustain itself both Americans and Europeans must overcome their tendencies toward mutual criticism of each other’s policies and learn to speak to each other frankly, confidently and in good faith. His Excellency Franois-Poncet graduated from The Fletcher School in 1948.
Perspectives on El Salvador
Ambassador Robert E. White
The current situation in El Salvador is still in a state of violent turmoil. The Honorable Robert E. White, who has held many diplomatic posts including Deputy United States Representative to the Organization of American States, U.S. Ambassador to Paraguay, and, until the beginning of this year, U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador, agreed to talk to The Forum about El Salvador and current U.S. policy toward that country. This interview complements the Hars-Espinosa study which appears on pp. 295-319 of this issue. Ambassador White defines U.S. objectives in El Salvador and argues that any imposed solution to the present crisis which does not take cognizance of the political realities in El Salvador and which is not founded on the moral element of foreign policy which the American people demand, will only exacerbate the conflict. Mr. White graduated from The Fletcher School in 1954 and is presently Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Review Essay – The Moralist as Geopolitician: Henry A. Kissinger, The White House Years
reviewed by Alan K. Henrikson
Energy and Security
David D. Deese and Joseph S. Nye
Doubletalk: The Story of the First Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
Sino-Soviet Crisis: A Study of Political Change and Communication
Beneath the Eagle’s Wings: Americans in Occupied Japan
John Curtis Perry
COMMENTARY AND CORRESPONDENCE
Rhetoric and Reality
W. Scott Thompson
The “Hostage Crisis”
Phillip W. D. Martin