6:1 – Winter 1982

The SS-20: Military and Political Threat?
Jeff McCausland
As the US continues discussions with the Soviet Union on limiting or reducing theater nuclear forces in Europe, a variety of political and military issues have arisen concerning nuclear forces in the region. At the center of the debate are the Soviet deployment of the SS-20 missile and NATO’s 1979 decision to modernize its theater nuclear force. In this article, Jeff McCausland examines the major factor that influenced NATO’s decision to deploy the new missiles – and seeks to determine Soviet aims by analyzing contemporary Soviet military doctrine and the capabilities of the SS-20 missile. Building on this analysis, he discusses the missile’s potential as a military, and political weapon, its proposed targets, and its place in the future of arms control negotiations. McCausland concludes that closer examination of Soviet intentions, actions and capabilities can clarify the issues facing the West.

Chile Under Frei: The Alliance for Progress
David R. Sands
Richard Nixon’s image of the United States as a “pitiful, helpless giant” illustrates the paradox of a great power frustrated by its limited ability to control events abroad. In this article, David R. Sands looks at one case in which, despite extensive American aid to a liberal, progressive regime in a traditional ally, US interests suffered a major setback. Eduardo Frei Montalva and his progressive Christian Democratic Party received great material and moral aid from US administrators during the years of the Alliance for Progress. But American policymakers misunderstood both the complexities of Chilean politics and the enormous stake of private US commercial interests in Latin America. The end result was the decisive defeat of Frei’s party in 1970 and the election of Salvador Allende. The author discusses the difficulties a superpower faces in using its resources to influence political developments overseas.

Peacekeeping without Conflict Resolution: The Kashmir Dispute
G. M. Shahidul Alam
Although in the aftermath of World War II the peacekeeping function of the United Nations was viewed as likely to promote the pacific development of disputes, three decades later it is clear that merely separating the combat forces of contending states does not bring the political resolution of conflict any closer. The United Nations has maintained a peacekeeping force in the troubled Kashmir region between Pakistan and India for more than thirty years. In this article, Shahidul Alam uses this long-standing dispute to illustrate the problems encountered by United Nations in promoting the resolution of international disputes. He concludes that the United Nations’ use of peacekeeping forces to police cease-fires may actually prolong, rather than speed, the ultimate resolution of conflict.

Observations on the Role of Services in International Trade
Susan C. Livingston
Most international economists recognize the large and increasingly important role of services in international trade, but they often fail to account for services in international models of trade. In this article Susan Livingston analyzes the difficulties encountered in defining “invisible” good in international trade. She first examines practical and theoretical attempts by economists and political authorities to define services. She then explores international trade in services and the barriers nations have erected to inhibit it. As an example of trade in services, she discusses the insurance industry and the problems it has experienced as a representative service offering agent in the international market. The article concludes with suggestions for the use of several international policy forums to discuss service industry problems and to liberalize trade.


Is Poland Not Yet Lost?
William E. Griffith

Inside Solidarity: An Interview
Ewa-Teresa Eliasz Brantley
The nature of the independent trade union movement in Poland was the major topic of discussion at Solidarity’s first National Congress in September 1981. Ewa-Teresa Eliasz Brantley was present at that Congress as one of the drafters of the statute defining Solidarity and its role in Polish society. She spoke with The Forum about the statute and its implications for Solidarity’s future, as well as the historical development of the trade union movement. Her remarks also dealt with the question of Solidarity’s perceptions of itself as a union and as a political force. A first-hand observer of Solidarity’s initial nationwide organizational plenum who is intimately acquainted with both the issues and the personalities involved in today’s Polish labor movement, Brantley brings fresh insights to the events of the past months.


Multilateral Energy Negotiations: Lessons of the Conference on International Economic Cooperation
David Adamson

Non-Proliferation after Baghdad
Scott Ulm

NATO and the Gulf: A New Concept of Burden Sharing
Fred Tanner

NATO and the Limits of Ambiguity
Robert Joseph

Mexico’s Presidential Succession: Miguel de la Madrid and Policy in 1982
Edward L. Monahan, Jr.

Getting to YES: Negotiating an Agreement without Giving In
Roger Fisher

Among the Believers: An Islamic Journey
V. S. Naipaul

National Defense
James Fallows               

6:2 – Summer 1982

5:2 – Summer 1981