6:2 – Summer 1982

Comparing the Energy Security Strategies of France and West Germany
Allen Dulles Jebsen
In the past decade two major oil shocks have convulsed the global economy. In the United States experts have written extensively on every aspect of those shocks as they have affected the United States, but little attention has focused on the energy security problems facing America’s allies. In this article, Allen D. Jebsen examines the energy security problems and strategies of France and West Germany. Beginning with the historical context of the world-wide energy security threat, Jebsen goes on to describe the roles West Germany and France have played in controlling the domestic oil industry, redirecting domestic energy consumption, and generally reducing vulnerability to oil shocks. Among his findings is evidence that the political systems of both France and West Germany hinder the development of efficient energy security policies. Jebsen then explores the foreign policy remedies taken by France and West Germany in response to their energy problems. His conclusions, based on the full spectrum of domestic and international concerns of each country, indicate that both countries have serious reason to view their policies to date as inadequate.

Aftermath of the Saur Coup: Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
Thomas M. Cynkin
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, the attention of the world was focused on this arid mountainous country, strategically situated between Pakistan and Iran. Afghan insurgents engaged Soviet and Afghan Army forces in a fierce guerrilla war. Recently, the conflict has received less attention in the West, but the fighting continues. In this article, Thomas Cynkin looks at the events following the precipitous Saur Coup which led to today’s conflict, and then analyzes the insurgent factions and strategies, and the Soviet response.

International Banking Facilities and the Future of Offshore Banking
David W. Wise
Last December, the Federal Reserve Board for the first time authorized the establishment of domestic International Banking Facilities. The stated purpose of the new policy was to attract back to the US banking transactions which had been conducted “offshore” – that is, beyond the reach of American legal jurisdiction – in order to escape American regulation. In the following article, David W. Wise explains the conditions which led to the creation of offshore banking centers, describes recent Federal Reserve Board measures to facilitate unregulated banking operations conducted in the United States, and suggests some possible consequences of this policy.

The Origins and Aftermath of a Foreign Debt Crisis – Turkey 1977
Dan Grosz
The study of international debt problems, as in the case of Poland and Jamaica, illustrates well how many ostensibly “economic” crises are, at heart, political ones. Indeed, a strictly economic approach to such matters can often lead to unintended, deleterious consequences for a country. In this article, Dan Grosz analyzes the development and repercussions of one such instance – the Turkish debt troubles of the 1970s and early 1980s. He demonstrates that a proper understanding of a nation’s financial health requires more than a familiarity with numbers. It requires also a proper sensitivity to basic political and social forces.


ASEAN: Contributor to Stability and Development
H. E. Tan Sri M. Ghazali Shafie, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia
With this speech, His Excellency Tan Sri M. Ghazali Shafie, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Malaysia, opened the Conference on “ASEAN – Today and Tomorrow,” held at the Fletcher School, 11 November 1981. The Conference was attended by dignitaries from all five members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. The Foreign Minister’s address traces the evolution of ASEAN, analyzes its economic and political structures, and discusses the organization’s relations with other Asian powers – China, Vietnam and the Soviet Union. Important events in recent Southeast Asian history, from the Indochina conflict to Kampuchea’s tragic fate, are dealt with from the perspective of ASEAN. His Excellency also points to ASEAN’s emergence on the international scene, as reflected by the extensive ties it has cultivated with the US and Europe, and the active role it has played in the UN. Looking to the future, he expresses optimism about ASEAN’s further development and its continuing contribution to peace and stability in the region.

Misperceptions in U.S.-Japan Trade Relations
Katsuhiro Nakagawa, Special Trade Representative, Japan
Katsuhiro Nakagawa is a Special Representative of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). In this speech, which he delivered at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy on 10 December 1981, he addresses one of the most pressing and volatile issues in Japanese-American trade relations: the Japanese trade surplus with the United States. Mr. Nakagawa explains that much of the ill-feeling on this side of the Pacific results from American misperceptions of the Japanese position in the world trade and the impatience of American companies trying to penetrate Japanese markets. He concludes that there is much room for negotiations between the two nations, but warns that constructive action will only be hindered if the Japanese-American Trade relations become a political issue in the United States.

Three Challenges for Better International Monetary Management
Benjamin J. Cohen

Germany After Schmidt: The Origins and Implications of Foreign Policy under a CDU/CSU Government
Clayton M. Clemens

Ore Wars: The Problem of U.S. Dependence of Foreign Materials
John Orme

French Foreign Economic Policy under Mitterrand
Mark Mosley

Indonesia and the Philippines: American Interests in Island Southeast Asia
Robert Pringle

Banks and the Balance of Payments: Private Lending in the International Adjustment Process
Benjamin J. Cohen

7:1 – Winter 1983

6:1 – Winter 1982