7:2 – Summer 1983


Negotiation from Strength: An Interview
Eugene Rostow

Acceptance of a Stable Balance: An Interview
Paul Warnke


Technocrats on the Firing Line
Raundi Halvorson
Brazil experienced near-incredible growth during the late 1960s and early 1970s, but poor comprehensive planning combined with the worldwide recession have resulted in huge outstanding debt for the largest Latin American nation. In this article, Raundi Halvorson, who has lived and worked in Brazil, outlines in stark and almost startling detail the immensity of the economic and social difficulties Brazil is experiencing. She vividly describes the crucial planning choices (and errors) made by the Brazilian technocrats and offers potential governmental options based on economic realities, the Brazilians’ wants and needs, and the inability or unwillingness of the current technocrats to both control inflation and push for greater social equity.

Brazil, the United States and Nuclear Nonproliferation: American Foreign Policy at the Crossroads
Amy Finkelstein
In this article, Amy Finkelstein examines the implications of West Germany’s 1975 decision to sell to Brazil, a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, sensitive nuclear technology. After first focusing on the agreement itself and Brazil’s motivations for acquiring a nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons-grade material, Finkelstein argues that past American policies harmed both U.S. -Brazil relations and America’s desire for nuclear nonproliferation. The author explores present U.S. policy options and suggests that, because of Brazil’s current external debt problems, the Reagan Administration has a unique opportunity to offer the Brazilian government economic aid in exchange for limiting the arrangements with Germany.

Visions of the Future War in Europe
Philip Zelikow
Western defense planners are haunted by the specter of a Soviet attack against Western Europe. In this essay, Philip Zelikow reveals some of the assumptions and habits of thinking that have conditioned NATO planning for the future war in Europe. Zelikow discusses Western scenarios as to how the war may start, develop and end, focusing on some of the contradictions and mysteries in such scenarios. He advocates a more imaginative approach to the problem of the “defense” of Europe.

Guatemala’s Refugees: Victims and Shapers of Government Policies
Deirdre Kelly
During the past year, Guatemala, along with the rest of troubled Central America, has been thrust to the forefront of the world stage. Yet the international community has been selective in where it directs its attention, tending to emphasize the strategic importance of the region while neglecting the human aspects of Central America’s turmoil. In the following article, Deirdre Kelly focuses on the human costs of Guatemala’s ongoing civil strife. Kelly argues that the Guatemalan peasants who have sought refuge in neighboring Mexico have significantly affected both the domestic and foreign policies of Guatemala and Mexico. The author’s findings suggest that it is time to reevaluate the role of refugees as a policy-determining factor in international affairs.

The Protestant Churches and the Nuclear Freeze
J. Ronald Newlin
In this article, J. Ronald Newlin discusses the role of the Protestant Church – the traditional center of worship in conservative middle America – in the nuclear freeze movement. The author first discusses the differences within the Church, concluding that the nuclear freeze represents the one point on the spectrum of options which can be supported by both conservative and liberal members of the Church. He then compares the religious freeze movement to its secular counterpart, arguing that the Church’s accessibility and moral authority provide it with important advantages which the secular movement does not have. Newlin concludes by arguing that while disarmament advocates in the Church will not be able to convince middle America to support disarmament, they can serve an important educational role in the nuclear freeze debate.

A Policy Perspective on Dissent and Repression in the Soviet Union
Allen Lynch
In this commentary, Allen Lynch examines the process of dissent and repression in the Soviet Union from the point of view of American foreign policy. He argues that American human rights policy is doomed to failure as long as it continues to emphasize support for the politically insignificant Soviet dissident intelligentsia. In order to achieve true progress in alleviating Soviet repression, the author argues, the United States must work through organizations considered legitimate by the Soviet government. He concludes that the best way to do this is through a policy of detente.

Chinese Views on U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Ho Veng-si
Official Chinese protests over American arms sales to Taiwan have increased greatly since the inauguration of President Reagan. In this article, Ho Veng-si analyzes the causes and motivations behind these protests as well as the importance of this issue to the Peoples’ Republic of China. She examines and criticizes explanations for Chinese policy, arguing that several of these contribute to an understanding of the policy, and then concludes that China must maintain good relations with the United States in order for Chinese reunification with Taiwan to occur

U.S.-Japan Trade: Problems and Prospects
John F. McDermid
Trade friction between the United States and Japan continues to heighten with emphasis on the issues of market access and import barriers. John F. McDermid examines these in a “nuts-and-bolts” treatment of trade-related issues as they have developed to the present. The problem is approached in terms of the American political scene, with discussion of the importance and depth of each issue as it stands on the agenda between the United States and Japan. Finally, predictions are made as to how the Administration and Congress may act during 1983 concerning relations with Japan.

The Influence of Culture on Japanese-American Negotiations
James R. Van de Velde
Japanese-American relations in recent years have been troubled by increasing tension over various international issues. In order to solve some of these dilemmas, both countries must be aware of each other’s cultural heritage and the effect that cultural differences have on negotiating styles. In this essay, James Van de Velde examines the interaction between culture and diplomacy in terms of Japanese-American negotiations. This perspective relies on the semantics of Japanese words associated with the term “negotiation” as indicative of how the process is carried out and what meaning is attached to it.

The Longest War: Israel in Lebanon
Jacobo Timerman

Nuclear Power in the Developing World
Daniel Poneman

Congo Cables: The Cold War in Africa from Eisenhower to Kennedy
Madeleine Kalb

8:1 – Winter 1984

7:1 – Winter 1983