Renewed Hope for a Federal Democracy in Post-Coup Myanmar

By Me Me Khant

Seventy-three years into the world’s longest running civil war, the resistance movement in Myanmar sees new beginnings and fresh opportunities despite seemingly insurmountable challenges.

Myanmar has long been gripped by political turmoil.

Armed conflicts, brutal military rule, and widespread atrocities have marked the Southeast Asian nation’s turbulent history since its independence in 1948. While the political reforms beginning in 2010 spurred hopes of a genuine democracy, prospects of peace and federalism remained a distant dream. The military maintained its dominance even after the pro-democracy opposition took power in the landmark 2015 election, and despite frequent peace talks, continued to wage war against ethnic minorities in the borderlands – including a genocide against the Rohingya.

Political turbulence in Myanmar took a new turn on February 1, 2021, when the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government. The coup ignited fierce resistance from every corner of the country in the form of the Civil Disobedience Movement, nationwide mass uprisings, and a new wave of fast-growing armed resistance. Deadly clashes have now spread to Myanmar’s heartland, even reaching the largest urban cities. In response, the military has escalated its mass terror and clearance operations. As of May 19, 2022, more than 1,800 have been killed and over 10,000 have been detained.  

While the coup’s aftermath is marked by bloodshed and violence, it also marks a new beginning for the democratic resistance. Witnessing the barbaric violence of the junta, the Bamar majority in Myanmar’s heartland was awakened to reckon with their history of turning a blind eye to the plight of ethnic communities that have long suffered simmering wars in the country’s borderlands.

Figure 1: Myanmar is separated into seven regions and seven states. Bamars concentrate all seven regions of the country.

Public apologies to the ethnic communities including the Rohingya were made not only by the public in street protests but also by civilian government officials and student unions in official statements. Simultaneously, civilian political leaders ousted in the coup find themselves needing to build a coalition with both allied and adverse opposition groups to gain official international recognition. These factors, catalyzed by youth leadership in the resistance, have created a seismic shift in envisioning of Myanmar’s political future.

For the first time in decades, pro-democracy forces across the political spectrum are calling for an inclusive, federal union as their priority. Initially following the military’s power grab, the demands of the civilian political opposition were to 1) release Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners; 2) respect the election results; and 3) resume parliamentary session. However, the resistance groups led by youth leaders and activists from a broad spectrum of ethnic and political lines such as the General Strike Committee (GSC) demanded and campaigned for more. Their demands included movement towards a federal democracy, the abolition of the 2008 constitution, and dismantling of military rule. Their mass organizing pressured the civilian political leadership to move beyond their original goal of returning to the status quo ante. Today, almost a year and a half after the coup, new political developments in Myanmar’s resistance movement could mean renewed hopes of unifying the long-fragmented nation.

Embracing the Armed Resistance

A major shift in today’s democratic struggle in Myanmar is the embrace of the role of armed resistance. In the past, civilian democratic opposition, led by Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, has always stressed nonviolence. The NLD government pursued formal dialogue with the military during its reign, which was a source of ethnic armed organizations’ (EAOs) distrust of the party.

In the post-coup landscape, however, the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by the ousted members of parliament and their ethnic allies, established a People’s Defense Force (PDF) last May and subsequently declared a “defensive war” on the junta. According to their defense minister, who has requested arms assistance from the international community, the NUG has now about 80,000-100,000 troops under its command. In addition to the PDF, numerous locally organized armed militias and urban resistance groups have proliferated throughout the country. Consensus now seems to be clear that the only way to end the cycle of military oppression is through armed struggle.

“Federalism” first, “Democracy” second

The civilian opposition has also begun to push for federalism as a priority in another major breakaway from the NLD’s pre-coup stance. Previously, the NLD was often criticized by ethnic minority stakeholders for failing to address their demands for federalism and giving excuses that the party is prioritizing democracy first.

The NUG, however, was founded on the political roadmap and federal democratic principles laid out in a Federal Democracy Charter – drafted and ratified by a wide network of resistance forces including allied political parties, EAOs, and civil society organizations including unions, women, and youth groups.

The members of the charter have transformed themselves into the National Unity Consultive Council (NUCC), making it a broad-based platform for federal dialogue with an aim to unite different forces together. Though slow and complex, the NUCC signifies a new vision for Myanmar’s federal future. Launched to the public last November, the Council is now tasked with drafting the Federal Democratic Constitution and implementing interim constitutional arrangements. NUCC says that it practices “collective leadership” and consensus-based decision making among its 28 organizations, signifying a turn towards a more inclusive dialogue.

Challenges Remain

There is no denying that insurmountable challenges remain for Myanmar’s resistance. Decades of distrust and contention among the EAOs themselves and with the Bamar-dominant political establishment beset the federal dialogue. Powerful stakeholders such as the Arakan Army and Kachin Independence Army are still hesitant to join the NUCC, justifiably so, given a history of fragmented interests and cycles of broken promises. In addition, defeating one of the strongest militaries in Southeast Asia with a scarcely resourced, decentralized resistance seems almost impossible. Although the resistance has managed to impose significant costs to the military, with nearly 1, 500 junta causalities during this year alone, victory seems wishful.  Yet, for many in Myanmar, this is the only way forward. The Myanmar people are determined to unify the fragmented resistance forces and to fight a long fight against a formidable common enemy. Perhaps it will take another generation, but certainly, there is no going back.

Me Me Khant is a poet, activist, and former student union leader from Burma. She current serves as the executive director and co-founder of Students for Free Burma (SFB) – an advocacy group informing Burma-related legislations and policies in Congress. She is also a graduate student in Master’s in International Policy (MIP) program at Stanford University and a Knight-Hennessy Scholar, where she studies intersections of technology, democracy, and conflict.

Myanmar is by Lim Ashley and is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.