How a Long-Simmering Conflict in Iraq Presents a Way Forward for the Region
By Amanda Silvers
The Middle East is undergoing profound transformations, yet one of the region's destabilizing conflicts remains under the radar: the ongoing struggle in Iraqi Kurdistan. While global attention remains on Syria, Israel and Iran, the Kurdish region in Iraq faces a web of security threats and geopolitical challenges that have profound implications for both regional and global stability. The current moment presents a unique opportunity to address these challenges through a targeted disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program focused on armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, particularly the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an extremist organization with unofficial ties to several parties behind decades of violence within Iraq and across borders.
While the landscape changed rapidly in Syria, in Türkiye, Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish councils met and the PKK declared on May 12 that they would disarm. While this in itself is significant, it has not resulted in an end to Turkish strikes, reinforcing the need for dialogue between the Kurdistan Diplomatic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) as well as the wider community of interest. That makes this the ideal moment to plan DDR with the PKK. Ankara views the PKK as a direct threat to its sovereignty, justifying military incursions into Northern Iraq under counterterrorism objectives. These actions strain Iraq’s fragile sovereignty and embolden extremist actors by undermining the Iraqi security apparatus and perpetuating the cycle that various factions believe they need to remain armed to defend themselves from attacks on civilians. Stabilizing the Kurdistan Region (KRG) through DDR could reduce the region's vulnerability to spillover violence.
After decades of war, the area needs investment, transparency, and the opportunity for a lasting peace. DDR surrounding the KRG should focus on three key areas to address these needs: the security sector, economic development, and good governance. The parties involved have struggled with governance challenges including corruption, suppression of dissent, and the existence of rival security forces. Implementing DDR programs would incentivize both sides to engage in dialogue while building legitimate pathways forward.
Why Should the International Community Care?
International coordination is crucial for both security and economic stabilization in the region. By supporting DDR, international actors can help secure borders, reduce trafficking, and provide economic incentives for peace. Many of the bordering countries are looking to repatriate refugees, as well as those who have been in limbo at detention centers and displaced persons camps. A more secure area for return will benefit the current host countries and lower the likelihood of problems upon return. While it will be difficult for several key political actors to agree on all of the critical aspects of DDR and convince their respective governments to act, the unique opportunity to advance each of their individual security concerns could mitigate many concerns.
At this stage in the conflict, the cross-border violence between Northern Iraq and Türkiye is no longer solely an issue of Türkiye and the PKK. Conflicts continue among the Peshmerga, ISIS, Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs), and the Iraqi government with the local population stuck in the middle. Türkiye maintains that the Syrian Democratic Forces, the key partner of the United States for the last decade in the fight against ISIS, is part of the PKK, which continues to cause friction in the new transitional government of Syria and between the United States and Türkiye.
While the outcome of the current Israeli strikes remains to be seen, Israel is also highly motivated to prevent a resurgence of IAMGs and could be spurred to participate in discussions and investments to increase its own security. Similar arguments exist for drawing in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. With a wide net of interested parties, investment and security cooperation can go far. Counterterrorism operations without these conditions have proven to have limited effectiveness over the last twenty years.
Why DDR in the KRG?
The hopes of an independent Kurdistan were dashed in the tumultuous dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, which left the ethnic Kurdish population split across four countries. Over the next 100 years, various defensive forces and extremist organizations arose. Many erstwhile allies would support Kurdish forces in one fight and ignore them afterward, nurturing a feeling for some that the only option to survive was an independent Kurdistan. After the first and second Gulf Wars, the United States supported the establishment of an autonomous region in Iraq, where local defensive forces, the Peshmerga, were absorbed into the state’s army and police force. However, the absorption of one force did not eliminate others, particularly those spread across multiple countries. According to the Human Rights Watch, over a million people remain displaced in Iraq, primarily in the KRG.
By reducing the number of armed groups operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, DDR could enhance local governance and alleviate tensions with neighboring states to stabilize the region. A successful DDR process would empower the Iraqi government to assert control over its borders and reduce external interference, which would strengthen its sovereignty. By reintegrating former combatants into civilian life, DDR could also unlock economic opportunities, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, where labor demand remains high.
Current Challenges and Comparative Lessons: Colombia and Nepal
DDR depends upon psychological care, economic institutions, and legal frameworks to succeed. Past DDR efforts underscore the importance of inclusivity, community engagement, and external support. DDR’s general steps are to disarm the combatants, remove them from their formations, and return them to civil society. The most pressing concern is ending the ongoing violence. Some communities will be unwilling to accept the return of insurgents who have been fighting in other countries, and if the fighters are not local, there is little compelling them to integrate. The Colombian peace process has revealed the critical need for community buy-in. Local populations, often victimized by insurgents, resisted reintegration efforts when perceived as overly lenient. To support the civilian population, the KRG must prioritize truth and reconciliation mechanisms to address local grievances.
Successful DDR requires investment from interested third parties; otherwise, destabilizing external interference can keep the arms flow going and prolong conflicts further by overwhelming fragile agreements. Third parties must make a more concerted effort to seek post-conflict solutions. Models that use development programs designed to involve the civilian community and are centered around their needs are necessary, encouraging citizen support to reintegration rather than fostering resentment.
Nepal’s DDR efforts demonstrated the challenges of integrating former combatants into state institutions. While some insurgents successfully transitioned into civilian roles, mistrust and poor coordination undermined broader goals. The KRG can learn from Nepal’s mistakes by fostering transparent and equitable integration processes. If this model is implemented in Iraq, it could be a stepping stone for Syria as well and crack down on narcotics, weapons, and smuggling routes.
A resilient state has significant connections between communities and the government. This is key to an area with wildly differing approaches to security, governance, and society, such as the differences among the PDK, IAMGs, KRG, and within the Iraqi government itself. The ongoing Turkish operations and lingering ISIS threat will make total disarmament difficult and demonstrate a need for an international mandate and involvement.
Lastly, if Kurdistan were to fully implement truth and reconciliation committees in the style of Rwanda, with the offer of amnesty when possible to ensure PKK and PDK participation, it would be a necessary final step. The local population, who feel that the PKK fought at the expense of civilians, need to know that their struggles and suffering are not forgotten during an amnesty, and the PKK must be properly incentivized to lay down arms while feeling their own needs are being addressed.
Policy Recommendations and the Path Forward
What follows is a structured, step-by-step summary outlining how DDR can be implemented in order to avoid the mistakes made by failing to capitalize on previous ceasefires with the PKK.
Step 1: Facilitate a ceasefire and negotiation framework. While the ceasefire was declared by Occalan, there so far has been no concrete steps taken. Regional actors could establish neutral forums for negotiation that will lay the groundwork for DDR implementation.
Step 2: Türkiye, Iraq, and perhaps the United States (due to its involvement in the security in the KRG and Syria) need to discuss how to integrate armed groups into civil service roles. The KRG could create specialized civil response units tasked with infrastructure development, disaster relief, and local governance. It is incredibly unlikely that the roughly 1 million displaced persons in Iraq will all return to their original homes (some from as long as fifty years ago), but local forces aiding in resettlement while the committees regulate returns and restitution when return is unavailable will work to address concerns of all members of the population.
Step 3: The European Union, the United States and other stakeholders must offer investment in infrastructure, agriculture, and education projects within the KRG to foster long-term economic stability. These programs need to be targeted to reinforce and improve existing KRG efforts toward digital, administrative, agricultural, and infrastructure reform. International organizations' experience and expertise in good governance and policy implementation can improve the capacity and professionalism of the government. Academic exchanges and scholarships targeting Kurdish youth could also help mitigate future recruitment into extremist groups.
Step 4: The KRG, Iraq, and Türkiye must develop joint mechanisms to monitor and secure porous borders. A shared security apparatus could work to prevent arms smuggling, narcotics trafficking, and the resurgence of ISIS. For example, the US Department of Defense's own doctrine on international security cooperation states:
"The United States’ global network of allies and partners is a unique American advantage, and Department of Defense (DoD) security cooperation tools are critical to bolster and leverage this network to advance shared interests and values. DoD security cooperation programs and related activities are a cost-effective means of enhancing the capabilities and capacity of allies and partners to provide for their own defense, addressing regional security challenges, and strengthening relationships that promote mutual interests. Bolstered by the Department’s security cooperation efforts, more capable allies and partners contribute to addressing shared national security challenges effectively alongside or in lieu of the U.S.”
A DDR program in the KRG represents a critical opportunity to stabilize one of the Middle East’s most volatile regions. By addressing the PKK’s presence and fostering collaboration among regional actors, DDR could alleviate tensions, empower the KRG, and reduce the risk of spillover violence from Syria. The United Nations, regional actors, and other stakeholders could make significant improvements through security sector reform, economic programming and institutional reform. The stakes are high, but the rewards are greater. A successful DDR framework in Iraqi Kurdistan could serve as a blueprint for conflict resolution across the Middle East, transforming a region plagued by division into one of cooperation and resilience.
Thank you to Adam, Bemal and Margaret.
Amanda Silvers is currently serving as a Major in the U.S. Army in a branch that applies knowledge of governance, economics and politics to affect human behavior to work towards strategic goals. Amanda is recipient of the General Douglas MacArthur award for leadership. She is a highly passionate, determined and innovative graduate with experience from the United States Army, four years in the Virginia Women’s Institute for Leadership, and the North Carolina Department of Public Health. She has an extensive background organizing projects, compiling and presenting reports and research, leading teams and missions as well as monitoring progress of separate groups. She has filled multiple positions as a team member and leader, developed skills necessary to interact with a wide variety of people including Generals, Senators, fellow Soldiers, students and administrative staff and has served as a Platoon Leader in the Military Police Corps in Iraq and Company Commander in Afghanistan, gaining invaluable experience in areas of operations, planning, analysis, training, government operation, civilian programs, law enforcement and leadership. Most recently served in Syria and across Africa as a Civil Affairs Officer, working extensively with interagency across the spectrum of conflict and was a panel member for the Conflict Stabilization and Operations forum.
Kurdistan et groupements Kurdes isolés (Elias Modern Press).
The work is in the public domain.
