Navigating Multipolarity: Africa’s Path to Sovereignty
By Christopher Zambakari,
In the heart of Africa, a revolution is unfolding. Not one of military violence, but one of recognition and changing perspectives. As the world shifts toward multipolarity, the continent dubbed at the beginning of the twenty-first century as “the poorest, the most technologically backward,” is rewriting its narrative.
But, as this narrative unfolds, and as the continent’s economic progress encourages domestic and foreign investment, questions remain. Can African nations truly claim their sovereign profile in an emerging global order? How can Africa leverage its countries’ growing economies to assume its place on the world stage? What role do alternative economic indicators play in painting a more nuanced picture of African development? What about cybersecurity, data governance, and the dire need to bring Africa’s infrastructure in these areas into the twenty-first century? And, crucially, how can the continent reconcile its colonial and splintered legacy with the necessity of unity among its nations in a multipolar world?
To understand Africa’s evolving position, one must first recognize the complexities of assessing its developmental outlook. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the continent accounts for 12.5 percent of the world’s population, but produces only 3.7 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP, while widely used as a primary economic health indicator, is a less effective measure relative to the economy of the diverse and massive African continent. Specifically, GDP fails to capture the continent’s substantial ‘informal’ economic sector—often called the underground or black economy. This informal economy measures, on average, over 42 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s Gross National Income, according to the International Labour Organization. In certain countries, such as Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe this share can rise to 60%. The share of employment belonging to the informal sector is even higher, standing at 72 percent—notable for its significant share of the economy, not to mention its exclusion from official GDP numbers, skewing normal measures.
One more consideration: GDP, as an aggregate measure, does not reflect income distribution, environmental costs, or quality of life. To address these shortcomings, alternative or complementary measures offer a more nuanced—certainly more accurate—representation of African economic development and societal progress. The Gini coefficient, for example, complements GDP figures by calculating income inequality. Other such indices, like the Inclusive Wealth Index or the Social Progress Index, offer more holistic views of economic progress, factoring in environmental degradation and resource depletion. The Human Development Index incorporates health and education metrics, while the Multidimensional Poverty Index and the Sustainable Development Goals provide comprehensive frameworks for assessing development.
While these alternative measures offer a more complete view of Africa’s development, they also highlight the significant challenges that persist. In other words, much work remains.
The creation of a legitimate popular sovereignty in Africa is critical to the task of nation-building. The arbitrary grouping and fragmentation of societies—a result of the continent’s colonial legacy—has created ethnic, linguistic, and cultural roadblocks to unified national identities. As such, balancing ethnic and regional interests, promoting inclusive policies, and developing common national narratives that respect and integrate the diverse cultural heritage of all groups must be considered a priority.
The colonial division of Africa often created countries too small to support viable economies, or too large and heterogenous to rule effectively. The imposition of Western systems of government has often clashed with traditional and indigenous governance structures, resulting in a disconnect between state institutions and the populations they serve. The impact of the historical fragmentation of Africa’s countries extends beyond political boundaries, shaping the foundations of knowledge production across the continent.
Knowledge production and African sovereignty
Africa’s knowledge production remains limited when compared to other continents, constraining its ability to assert complete sovereignty while weakening efforts to develop indigenous solutions to African challenges. To overcome this, the continent must invest in creating internal and external cross-border knowledge-sharing networks, promoting African scholarship opportunities and indigenous knowledge systems, and leveraging technology to democratize access to education and research. It is important that such investment not be confined to continental borders but also include collaboration with international partners and the African diaspora.
An example of this effort is the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), a pan-African research institution headquartered in Dakar, Senegal. Since its founding in 1973, CODESRIA has played a vital role in strengthening Africa’s intellectual independence by supporting social science and humanities research across the continent and the diaspora. Through fellowships, publications, and collaborative projects, it fosters indigenous knowledge production and amplifies African voices in global academic and policy debates. Institutions like CODESRIA exemplify the infrastructure needed to enhance Africa’s scholarly capacity and build a sustainable, self-defined future.
Africa’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is shaped by economic transformation, security governance, and balanced diplomacy. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of resilience and agency in international relations. As a result, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) today shows its steadfast dedication to greater integration and has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty.
As a flagship project of the African Union’s (AU) Agenda 2063 outline, the roadmap to “The Africa We Want,” AfCFTA stands as a vital force to support economic sovereignty. By uniting a market of over 1.3 billion people across 54 states with a combined GDP of USD 3.4 trillion, AfCFTA holds the potential to boost intra-African trade by more than 50 percent in its first decade. Achieving this vision requires harmonizing tariffs and regulations across the continent, boosting the efficiency of exchange. Success depends on steady foreign and domestic investment in productive industries, supportive trade policies, and better infrastructure. However, illicit financial flows continue to hurt Africa’s economic sovereignty. Because of these illicit streams—trade mispricing, tax avoidance or evasion, money laundering, embezzlement, bribery, and more—The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that the continent loses about USD 88.6 billion each year to “illicit capital flight,” nearly 2.9 percent of continental GDP, adding that better regional integration and stronger financial governance could help address these vulnerabilities.
The AU—utilizing its eight Regional Economic Communities—has become the continent’s primary platform to work with foreign partners inside and outside the BRICS alliance. The AU targets “inclusive social and economic development, continental and regional integration, democratic governance and peace and security amongst other issues aimed at repositioning Africa to becoming a dominant player in the global arena.”
As Africa seeks to bolster its regional integration, it must simultaneously navigate a complex web of external partnerships. The continent’s international partnerships continue to evolve. The United Nations recognizes Africa’s voting bloc of 54 states as the largest regional grouping, which gives it substantial influence in global affairs. Its trade volumes demonstrate strategic management of relationships with multiple powers including Russia (USD 18.4 billion), China (USD 199 billion), Italy (USD 76.3 billion), France (USD 67.8 billion), and the United States (USD 65.7 billion).
China and the emerging multipolar order
Global power dynamics are rapidly evolving, and Africa has become a pivotal arena for emerging powers. The BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—have significantly expanded their influence over the past two decades, most recently adding to the original five countries Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. China specifically has emerged as Africa’s largest trading partner. The BRICS New Development Bank, proposed as an alternative to the World Bank, has helped finance development projects and fostered economic cooperation among BRICS nations and their African partners. Brazil, this year’s president of the forum, has placed a focus on “the governance and reform of financial markets, local currencies, and payment instruments and platforms as a means of increasing and diversifying trade, financial and investment flows.”
Digital and technological sovereignty
Digital and technological sovereignty is becoming critical in the emerging multipolar world. Africa’s ability to assert such independence depends on its tech capabilities to adapt and improve.
As examples, universal, high-quality internet access must be prioritized alongside the expansion of 4G base stations and upgrades to existing 2G networks. Achieving low-latency, high-speed connectivity will also require a significant increase in fiber-optic cabling. Migration to 5G technology is also essential for future-proofing Africa’s digital infrastructure. For instance, it is suggested that Africa must invest in 250,000 new 4G base stations to expand network coverage and install at least 250,000 kilometers of fiber-optic cables to enhance connectivity. Accelerating migration to 5G technology and expanding beyond the current seven commercial 5G networks is critical.
Data governance and cybersecurity also pose significant challenges. For instance, a 2023 report, “Cybersecurity threatscape of African Countries, 2022-23,” notes that 75 percent of African organizations—representing various industry sectors, including financial services, government/public sector, manufacturing, energy and natural resources, and information and communication technology (ICT), across both large enterprises and small and medium enterprises—have updated their cybersecurity strategies.
It gets more troubling: 78 percent of IT department heads admit their organizations are ill-prepared to deal with cyberattacks. Only 39 out of 54 African countries have enacted cybersecurity legislation. To strengthen digital sovereignty, Africa must:
accelerate the implementation of the Malabo Convention by enhancing cybersecurity, regulating electronic transactions, and safeguarding personal data across Africa;
develop continent-wide standards for data protection and cybersecurity;
invest in cybersecurity education and training programs, and;
foster public-private partnerships to enhance cybersecurity infrastructure and responses.
Where challenge meets promise
The emerging multipolar world order presents Africa with both unprecedented opportunities and complex challenges. As global powers vie for influence and resources, African nations are increasingly able to select their strategic partners based on national priorities—not colonial legacies.
These newfound, evolving opportunities can enable—when considered from strategic perspectives—African countries to pursue purposeful autonomy, balancing relationships with chosen global powers to best serve the country’s best interests. Regional integration—a keystone to success—can boost trade between African countries, while the adoption of economic indicators beyond GDP can provide a more nuanced and a more meaningful understanding of Africa’s progress, enabling more targeted development strategies. BRICS and other power centers can create fresh and favorable circumstances for African nations to assert themselves, allowing Africa to negotiate better terms in international dealings. Ultimately, Africa can reduce its dependence on traditional Western powers.
Additionally, enhancing Africa’s knowledge production capabilities is crucial for developing indigenous solutions to the continent’s unique challenges. The realization of robust data governance frameworks, more effective debt management strategies, improved regional coordination, and digital and technological sovereignty are all pieces that can lead Africa to a more competitive position in the global economy.
As is often the case, easier said than done is the chance to leverage collective strengths, embrace technological advancements, and engage in astute diplomacy. But, with strategic thought, with meaningful purpose, Africa can transform its many challenges into opportunities to enhance continental sovereignty. This multifaceted approach will not only boost Africa’s influence in global affairs, but it will also empower its people to take control of their narratives, territories, and resources in the evolving multipolar landscape.
Christopher Zambakari holds a Doctor of Law and Policy degree from Northeastern University and is chief executive officer of The Zambakari Advisory. He is a Hartley B. and Ruth B. Barker Endowed Rotary Peace Fellow and the assistant editor of The Bulletin of the Sudan Studies Association. His areas of research and expertise are international law and security, political reform and economic development, governance and democracy, conflict management and prevention, and nation- and state-building processes in Africa and in the Middle East. His work has been published in leading law, economic and public policy journals.
Text Page and Map: Africa (Apgar, E.A.; Apgar, A.C.).
Licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 via David Rumsey Map Collection, David Rumsey Map Center, Stanford Libraries.
