Observations on Recent Events in the Philippines
Senator Frank H. Murkowski
The United States and the Philippines: An Interview
Ambassador Paul D. Wolfowitz
The Transition of Power in the Philippines: An Interview
Dr. Richard J. Kessler
The Development of American Defense Policy Toward Pakistan 1947-1954
Devin T. Hagerty
The Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan have increased the significance of Pakistan as a “frontline” state, vital to Washington’s plan to protect the Middle East from further Soviet encroachment. In recognition of Pakistan’s important geostrategic position, the United States concluded a $3.2 billion economic and security agreement with the country in 1981, and concluded a follow-up agreement for over $4 billion in March 1986. In this article, Devin T. Hagerty argues that contrary to popular belief, Pakistan’s current role is not a new one in American strategic planning. He analyzes the initial era of security relations between the U.S. and Pakistan from 1947 to 1954, and discusses the parallels between the 1981 agreement and the considerations leading to the famed “northern tier” concept of John Foster Dulles. Mr. Hagerty concludes that the strategic thinking which evolved in that crucial period, resulting in the Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement of 1954, forms the basis for the present-day relationship.
Foreign Banks in China: Current Prospects Under a Changing Financial System
Lawrence Paul Shapiro
In response to policy changes by the Chinese government, since 1979 over five dozen foreign banks have set up representative offices in Beijing alone. Since the declaration of four Special Economic Zones in 1985, foreign banks have also opened branches in China. In this article, Lawrence Paul Shapiro analyzes these recent reforms of the Chinese banking system and argues that, despite what appears to be official Chinese encouragement of foreign banks, it is unlikely that large numbers of foreign banks will be able to participate profitably in the Chinese domestic market. Current reforms, according to Mr. Shapiro, have left unaffected the system of state controls on business and banking which both makes credit analysis for foreign banks difficult and makes competition with Chinese banks, with their controlled source of deposits and allocations, virtually impossible. Further and more significant reforms, such as allowing foreign banks to deal in local currency, are necessary before foreign banks will be fully incorporated into the Chinese system. The author concludes that though current prospects for foreign banks in China may appear bleak, there is hope that such reforms will be passed, and that those banks which choose to remain now may eventually profit in the future.
The Reagan Administration’s Battle for Foreign Aid
D. Brent Hardt
Despite continued opposition within Congress and the American public at large, the Reagan administration has striven since it entered office to secure aid for the contra forces of Nicaragua. Perhaps more interesting than the sheer doggedness of the administration has been its willingness to modify its purported objectives in order to secure support for the aid requests. D. Brent Hardt, in a revealing anatomy of the battle for contra aid, details how the administration’s position evolved from competing views within the White House to focus on the interdiction of supplies to El Salvadoran rebels, then on internal Nicaraguan reforms, and finally on the all but stated desire to overthrow the Sandinista government. The changes in the administration’s stance, according to Mr. Hardt, were largely induced by Congressional pressures. With survival of the contras as a political force at stake, the Reagan administration will pull out all the stops in an ongoing effort to secure financial assistance for the rebels. The author concludes that the contras will remain the cornerstone of an inconclusive and ambiguous U.S. policy toward Nicaragua.
The Central American Dilemma: West German Perceptions and Options
H. Jiirgen Hess
Although current problems in Central America are usually seen as a major problem for United States policy makers, it is often forgotten that many other nations are also involved in the region. As H. Jiirgen Hess outlines in this article, the European Economic Community is the second largest trade partner for many of the Central American countries. In the case of West Germany these historically strong economic ties, often in opposition to United States policy, are complicated by equally strong present – day security ties with the United States. The West German government must strengthen NATO and at the same time respond effectively to strong domestic opposition to United States policy in Central America. Mr. Hess surveys the historical relationship between West Germany and Central America and the current policies of the four West German political parties represented in Parliament toward the region. He argues that policy options are limited, given overwhelming U.S. influence in the region. But though West German attitudes toward NATO and Central America seem to conflict, the author concludes that opposition to United States military involvement in Central America springs from a conviction that the deployment of United States forces in the region would only weaken NATO and increase German domestic opposition to West German ties with the United States.
Liberation Theology as a Revolutionary Ideology in Latin America
Roberta Steinfeld Jacobson
The doctrine of liberation theology in Latin American revolutionary movements has sought to bridge the gap between Marxism and Catholicism, by blending religious dogma and Marxist theory into a plan of action for improving social conditions. Roberta Steinfeld Jacobson outlines the attitudes both of the Catholic Church and the Soviet Union toward this hybrid doctrine. She then shows that liberation theology effectively promotes revolution but so far has been unable to survive as an alternative to traditional Catholic doctrine after the first phase of a revolutionary struggle is over. She concludes with a discussion of policy recommendations for the American government in coping with the influence of liberation theology on revolutionary movements.
Psychology and Deterrence
by Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein
Peaceful Unilateral Remedies: An Analysis of Countermeasures Enforcing International Law Through U.S. Legislation
by Elisabeth Zoller
The Pacific Century: Economic and Political Consequences of Asian-Pacific Dynamism
by Staffan Burenstam Linder
Southern Africa in the 1980s
edited by Olajide Aluko and Timothy M. Shaw